Our bold prediction for this cycle

SCOOP’S TL;DR

📈 MARKET SENTIMENT

  • Expect to see some boring sidewise chop for Bitcoin in the coming weeks. The 4th Halving is done! And once again Bitcoin has become ever more scarce. We will likely need to see the dust settle post-Bitcoin Halving for the market to spice up again.

🔥 THE TRENDING NARRATIVE

  • The Fourth Bitcoin Halvening!

🔥 BARBELLS WEEKLY PICK

  • Bitcoin Virtual Machine Network $BVM.

🗞️ TOP STORIES

  • Binance Converts Emergency Fund

  • Kraken Wallet

  • World Chain

🏆 WEEKLY WINNER

  • Confessions Rebound

😡 REKT SECTION

  • Gary Gensler

💎 PREMIUM SCOOP

  • One of the most popular launchpads just launched their own token. Looking at the numbers, this seems very undervalued.

    CRYPTO FEAR & GREED INDEX

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  • Crypto Total Market Cap $2.29T - 24/hour change 4.82%

  • Crypto Market Cap Total Volume $116B - 24/hour Change - 1.3%

    Majors - 24/Hour change

    • BTC - $63,010 - 0.01%

    • ETH - $3041 - 0.01%

    • Expect to see some boring sidewise chop for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.

    • The 4th Halving is done! And once again Bitcoin has become ever more scarce.

    • We will likely need to see the dust settle post-Bitcoin Halving for the market to spice up again.

    • Altcoins are down in the region of 30-60%. Now is not a time to be shaken out of your bags.

    • Volatility is why we are here. It works both ways.

    • Expect the following 12 months to be very fruitful, especially for the Alt market. We are extremely bullish.

    • As mentionned last week, We are transitioning from crypto spring to summer. (Summer Most Gains)

    • Check out our Predictions for the market moving forward!

    • Bitcoin/dominance - 55%

    • Bitcoin’s dominance holds strong in the markets for now. Not much has changed here. We expect a slight push-up from 55% to around 60% before the real Alt season takes hold

    🔮 NARRATIVES TO FOCUS ON IN 2024

  • - AI Infrastructure / Autonomous agents

  • - GPU / Cloud Computing

  • - Gaming / Game-fi

  • - DEPIN (Decentralised Infrastructure)

  • - RWA - Real-World Asset tokens

  • - Memes - (you’re not too good for them)

  • - BTC Defi / BRC20

  • - New Layer 1’s

  • - Parallelization EVM / Modular Blockchains

  • - Solana Killers

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Crypto is a narrative & trend-driven game, where attention goes, the money flows. So what’s hot?

THE FOURTH BITCOIN HALVING

The 2024 Bitcoin Halving, a momentous event in the cryptocurrency world, took place on April 20, 2024, at 00:09 AM UTC. This fourth halving reduced the block reward for Bitcoin miners from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, marking a significant milestone in Bitcoin's history. The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, has historically been associated with price surges, leading to excitement and anticipation within the Bitcoin community for future price movements. The next halving is expected in 2028.

In the world of Crypto, memes run riot, and Bitcoin has granted us a big one! The halving happening on 4/20! If you know you know!

Think about, Trillions of Dollars Printed, but only 21 million Bitcoins, It means only one thing… number go up!

With Bitcoin now being Wall Street’s favorite asset, let’s dive into historically what has happened to Bitcoin and the market post-halving.

$BTC HALVING PRICE HISTORY:

•2012= $12 halving, $964 1yr later - 80X

•2016= $663 halving, $2550 1yr later - 4X

•2020= $8740 halving, $55801 1yr later - 6.3X

•2024= ~$63300 at halving….. ???? (Our prediction 2.2X)

Which if correct would put us somewhere in the region of $140,000 cycle top.

We can see over the years that the gains for Bitcoin have dropped as the asset has matured, but for some people to be calling the top now is just plain ridiculous. We have a tonne of bullish catalysts on our side, but in this instance, we are not overthinking it, we are just gonna let history repeat itself once more.

Outside of the King (BTC), how has the Total Crypto Market reacted to Halvening events?

•2012= $1B halving To $12B, Cycle Top - 12X

•2016= $13B halving To $850B, Cycle Top - 63X

•2020= $200B halving To $3 trillion, Cycle Top - 15X

•2024= ~$2.4 Trillion at halving To….?? (Our Prediction 3X)

This would take us to a total crypto market of somewhere in the region of $7.2 Trillion total crypto market cap to this cycle top.

So if the Bitcoin Cycle Tops at $140,000, it would have a market cap of around $2.75 Trillion, That leaves $4.45 Trillion left for the rest of the market, and factoring in that the market normally tops out with Bitcoin at 40% market dominance, 40% of $7.2Trillion is $2.8 Trillion, these predictions line up pretty nicely.

The current total Altcoin market is worth $1.2T, as we are assuming that the Altcoin market this cycle will reach a top of $4.45 Trillion, which would be a near 4X from where we are today. It’s a monumental amount of capital inflow yet to come.

The take-home message. The meat of the cycle is yet to come. If you think you’ve seen crazy already… think again. We believe we have a very prosperous time ahead of us. Strap in, before long things are about to get silly.

🏋️ BARBELL’S WEEKLY PICK

In each issue, our Founder ‘Jack Barbell’ delivers a hot rising star crypto asset that is yet to explode.

You can Follow Jack Barbell on X - @thebarbell_

Marketcap - $60M

Narrative - BRC20

Long-term Potential - 5-10X

Scoop’s Take

The Bitcoin halving is complete & it is only a matter of time before the dust settles, Bitcoin starts to grind up and attention turns to the Bitcoin Defi Ecosystem. Smart Money has become very comfortable in scooping up this token, and for good reason.

Several projects are trying to deliver layer 2 solutions for Bitcoin, but given the progress BVM has made with working products plus concrete partnerships & recognition from major projects including NEAR protocol we feel this project has a strong chance at stealing considerable market share & growth.

No exposure to BTC? maybe gaining exposure to the Bitcoin Defi ecosystem is the answer. At just $65M market cap, We can see this project doing very well in the coming weeks & months.

In short, this thing is like a factory for Bitcoin Layer 2’s.

Bitcoin Virtual Machine Network (BVM), is positioned as a modular blockchain metaprotocol, BVM revolutionizes the landscape by enabling the seamless creation of individual Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions. While Bitcoin has long been hailed as the pioneer of decentralized digital currency, its capabilities have been somewhat limited in comparison to platforms like Ethereum, which introduced smart contract functionality. However, with the emergence of BVM, the Bitcoin ecosystem now stands on the cusp of evolution.

At its core, BVM aims to empower developers and entrepreneurs to harness the full potential of Bitcoin by offering smart contract capabilities akin to those found on Ethereum's Layer 2 solutions. This paradigm shift opens up a world of possibilities, allowing for the creation of Bitcoin (dapps) spanning various verticals, including decentralized finance (DeFi), gaming, art, artificial intelligence (AI), and more. By leveraging BVM, developers can build sophisticated L2 solutions with minimal effort, enabling them to focus on innovation and user experience rather than grappling with complex technical challenges.

  • Alpha Chain (formerly NOS): BVM has developed Alpha Chain, a Bitcoin Layer 2 solution utilizing Optimistic Rollup technology. With a lightning-fast block time of just 2 seconds and transaction costs lower than $0.01, Alpha Chain enhances scalability for Bitcoin.

  • Data Availability: Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions on BVM ensure data validity on Bitcoin itself. Developers can select the Data Availability layer from providers such as Polygon, Celestia, and NEAR Protocol, offering both speed and affordability without compromising Bitcoin's security.

  • Examples: Alpha Chain, one of the Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions on the BVM platform, exemplifies its capabilities. It leverages Polygon as its data availability layer and supports social finance (SocialFi) platforms, boasting significant user adoption, transaction volume, and trading activity.

  • Other Projects: Besides Alpha Chain, several teams are building their Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions and decentralized applications (dapps) using BVM. Notable examples include Naka Chain for DeFi blockchain and GamingOnBitcoin for fully-on-chain gaming experiences on the Bitcoin network.

Binance Converts Emergency Fund - A Reliability Enhancer

At a glance 🔎
  • Binance has shifted its billion dollar emergency fund to USDC which is Circle’s Stablecoin.

  • The fund was previously spread across wallets: Bitcoin, Tether, True USD and BNB.

  • The decision has been made to maintain as close a valuation to the dollar as possible.

  • Previously, the fund has maintained around the dollar but has fluctuated with market movements.

  • The new emergency fund represents around 3% of the USDC supply.

🕵️ Scoops take: 

A smart move from the new CRO Richard Teng.

The previous leader, CZ was gaining too much bad press, it doesn’t help when a $4.3bn fine is agreed with The U.S.

Doubts were certainly raised over Binance, but moves such as this should restore plenty of faith in the company.

Intentions are now firmly with protecting the customer and we are all over this.

Kraken Wallet - Another Winner For Customers

At a glance 🔎
  • Kraken has announced a new wallet that will be the first from a major exchange to be open-sourced.

  • The wallet will initially support 8 blockchains including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Optimism, Base, Arbitrum, Polygon and Dogecoin.

  • They are eying up the competition which consists of MetaMask, Ledger, Trezor and Coinbase plus more.

🕵️ Scoops take: 

Another huge win for customers.

A saturated market is a potential nightmare for the providers to get market domination but as a userbase it means we can choose products that fit our needs and the more of them the merrier.

As the second largest U.S based crypto exchange they had to develop this to ensure they keep on growing as if you are standing still you are going backwards.

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World Chain - Brought To You By World Coin

At a glance 🔎
  • World Coin are launching a Layer-2 Ethereum blockchain called World Chain.

  • The purpose of the chain is to prioritize verified humans over AI bots and trading algorithms.

  • Verified humans will enjoy priority blockspace over bots and free gas.

  • They will also offer users cheaper fees than they would get if dealing directly with Ethereum.

    🕵️ Scoops take:

It is promising technology and it takes a very brave investor to bet against Sam Altman, the speed at which OpenAI is innovating is insane. Every few months, they seem to be able to completely disrupt the market. We wouldn’t be surprised if they were using AI to build new products given how fast they iterate & build.

But as AI continues to rise, it gives birth to another problem. More Bots. The more sophisticated Bots become, it becomes harder and harder to tell who is human and who is not. Especially online.

So their solution is to verify humans against the bots. What a world we live in.

With the launch coming this Summer, it’s time to clean the eyeballs for scanning.

PNG. Line Break - Triple Scoop

🏆 WEEKLY WINNER🏆

Coinfessions Rebound

The popular X page has been a safe haven for people to anonymously share their experiences.

This one investor has gone full circle…from taking waves of abuse, they have had the last laugh.

Check out the below.

😡 THE REKT SECTION 😡

Gary Gensler

The bad smell that just will not go away.

For a moment on the evening of the 17th of April, it looked like it was going to be the end of Gary Gensler as he shared a teasing cryptic message on his X account about how it has been an honor to serve as the SEC chair over the last 3 years.

The whole space rejoiced as we thought we were finally getting rid of him, but unfortunately, at the time of writing, he still remains in his post.

Pray for the change.

Feast your eyes on the delights, surprises & Alpha below.

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